ExPred
How to read probabilities

Market accuracy

A market price is a live estimate produced by available orders and liquidity. It is not a guarantee, forecast certification or promise of a particular result.

Interpreting prices

A Yes price near 0.70 is commonly read as an implied probability near 70%, before fees and market frictions.

  • Prices can move quickly when information or liquidity changes.
  • Thin markets can be more volatile and have wider execution differences.
  • Resolved results, not interim prices, determine final settlement.

Data quality

Event details and resolution sources should be reviewed on the event page. Contact support when the displayed market data appears stale or inconsistent.